In the House of Commons lobby in the mid-1990s, I heard a Tory MP declare to a colleague that he was off to a meeting to 'bury socialism forever'. Even at that time I found his comment memorable and showing a distinct lack of knowledge of British politics post World War II.
He had forgotten the recent trend over decades for British politics to follow the trajectory of a pendulum. Tired of Thatcherism, the UK turned to Tony Blair in the hope of new ideas and policies. Many were later startled to find that much of what was to follow was again distinctly Thatcherite in flavour. Last Thursday's election results showed a definite rejection of recent policy and tax ideas from Blair's successor, Gordon Brown. Many pundits may well have been right to point to historic downturns in local elections that were subsequently turned around at following elections. But again, it may have also been a decisive crank of the pendulum in another direction.
It could well be another two years before anyone knows the answer to this conundrum and in two years no-one will be thinking of Boris Johnson being elected as London Mayor or losses in councils that few could identify on a map. The economy may well have recovered its equilibrium and issues such as Iraq may have ceased capturing any public attention. Although people in the UK hate the idea, the election of a new US President may have a global beneficial effect, perhaps not in terms of policy, but at least in a sense of certainty.
But as I have warned before - and before the PR industry paper 'PR Week' addressed the notion - these shifts in the pendulum will have an effect on politics and the public affairs industry. Mayor Boris (as he undoubtedly will be known) will be surrounded by a phalanx of new advisers on transport, economic affairs, environment and a host of other policy areas. There will be a desire on the part of the Tory High Command to use London as a test-bed for policies that they might subsequently introduce to the rest of the UK. How London's battery of New Labour public affairs agencies will handle that challenge will be worth observing.
For my US friends who read these thoughts and kindly explain the nuances of their politics to me, perhaps I could outline Gordon Brown's dilemma in a sentence? His local council where he lives in Scotland is now run by the Liberal Democrats, the Scottish Parliament is run by the Scottish National Party. His local council for Downing Street in London is run by the Conservatives and the Mayor of the UK's capital city, for the first time, is now also a Conservative. Even in my home country of Wales, the Labour government only operates in a coalition with Plaid. More intriguingly, the 'S' word used by the Tory MP in the House of Commons fifteen years ago - socialism - is now almost obsolete in UK political usage.
No one can ever think that the PR and public affairs challenges remain unchanged.
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